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Everyone kept saying self-driving cars were 5 years away 5 years ago. What happened?

jiro Mar 20

I remember in 2016–2018, it felt like autonomous vehicles were right around the corner. Tesla was throwing around “Full Self-Driving” like it was ready to replace Uber drivers. Waymo was racking up miles. Even legacy carmakers were scrambling to catch up. Fast forward to 2025… I haven't seen any with my own eyes.

Was the tech overhyped? Are we underestimating how messy real-world driving is? Or is something deeper going on, like economic or political resistance, that’s slowing things down?

When do you actually think self-driving cars will be common on streets, and what does "common" even mean now?

Replies

Yeah, I’ve been wondering the same thing. I actually spotted self-driving taxis back in the US... so it’s definetly happening, but only in really controlled enviroments. I think the tech is super impressive but still kinda struggles with all the messy, unpredictable stuff that happens on real roads. Plus, regulators and liability stuff are probably slowing it down too.

My guess is we’ll keep seeing these services pop up city by city, but personal fully self-driving cars everywhere? Probably still atleast 10+ years out… if not longer.


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Chad M.

@karrinaaaa I'm not sure the entire traffic system will adjust it to a few self-driving cars. It should be practical and affordable enough to become more common and force a systematic change.


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Oh man, self-driving cars were supposed to be here yesterday, right? 😂 Back in 2016–2018, it really felt like we were on the verge of hopping into robotaxis and never touching a steering wheel again. But here we are in 2025, still very much driving ourselves to work, dodging potholes, and questioning our life choices in traffic.

Honestly, I think we underestimated just how chaotic real-world driving is. AI can handle structured environments, but throw in aggressive lane-cutters, unpredictable pedestrians, and the occasional rogue shopping cart, and suddenly, the system is like, “Yeah… I’m gonna need a minute.” 🤖💀

At this rate, “common” self-driving cars might just mean your cruise control gets a little fancier every year. Maybe in another 5 years, we’ll be saying they’re just 5 years away. Again. 😆


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Moderator

Such an interesting topic! I was actually studying in Pittsburgh, PA, when Carnegie Mellon University demoed some of the first self-driving cars in the city. This was all the way back in 2013, and it was such an exciting time! Yes, I agree that unfortunately real-life driving can't offer the controlled environments that AI  systems need to work properly. But AI can be integrated into human-operated cars to make specific actions easier and safer than ever. For instance, cars that automatically steer into and out of parallel parking already exist! That's the real deal for me 🙂


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Admin

@lauren-w parking is a huge advancement, but I'm really hoping for the driving part 😅 I hope I'll have one before I die.


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Chad M.

If a $300K price tag makes something common then I guess being rich is just the new normal


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